Loose chemical prices move with demand

Loose chemical prices move with demand Crude oil to grasp the seasonal trend In 2012, crude oil still maintained the box oscillation pattern, and the trend was closely related to the seasonal pattern of the variety.

Supply Forecast: Routine Supply Sufficiency The US Department of Energy estimates that in 2013, OPEC’s remaining capacity will again rise above the 10-year average. Non-OPEC countries’ crude oil production increased substantially to a high of nearly 6 years, with the increase in shale oil production in the United States contributing a larger portion and the decline in production in the North Sea. The North Sea region was once an important global crude oil producer, and Norway was once the world’s top three exporter. In recent years, the output of this region has dropped significantly. As the largest non-OPEC producer, Russia’s production in 2012 remained stable, with daily production maintained at around 10 million barrels. It is expected that the output of non-OPEC countries will remain high throughout 2013.

Demand or will be stable 1. Demand fluctuates according to seasonal patterns. In 2012, the demand for oil in the United States remained weak. As of November 30, the total annual average oil demand was 18.65 million barrels, which is still larger than the 2000-2.2 million barrels per day when the economy was operating smoothly, and was lower than the daily average of 19,200,000 barrels in 2011. Demand. Among them, gasoline demand still has a strong seasonal pattern. In January, the demand bottomed out. After that, it began to climb and reached its peak in August, which is consistent with the seasonal trend in previous years.

2. China's economy has bottomed out and demand remains stable. The growth in demand for oil products in China was relatively weak in 2012. The growth in demand for oil products in China has reduced the contribution to non-OECD countries' demand growth to 23%. This reflects the structural factors caused by energy substitution. It also reflects the cyclical factors of China's economic growth slowdown in 2012. With the gradual emergence of supportive policies for economic growth, the Chinese economy will continue its upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2012. The corresponding demand for Chinese oil products is also expected to rebound further.

The seasonal pattern of crude oil under the background of adequate supply and stable demand, the fluctuation of commodity prices is closely linked with its seasonal law. In addition to the price turmoil during the financial crisis, by analyzing the seasonal characteristics of crude oil prices from 1983 to 2007, we found that crude oil prices rose from March to September every year, and the price of crude oil fell from September to November. In December, crude oil prices were biased by January. Strong. From this point of view, the strength of crude oil prices is related to the seasonal pattern of demand. Driving and generating electricity increase the consumption of oil products each summer, and winter is the heating season. In 2013, where demand is relatively stable and supply can be set according to demand, investors should grasp the seasonal pattern of crude oil prices to formulate appropriate investment strategies.

In the outlook, supply in the future, the increase in crude oil production in North America caused by shale oil production in 2013 will continue to increase, which will rewrite the supply pattern of the crude oil market.

In terms of demand, global crude oil demand in 2013 maintained a slight upward trend. In 2013, the U.S. economy continued to recover weakly. U.S. oil product consumption will remain stable, and it will be difficult to make a big improvement. The Chinese economy will continue its upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2012, and the corresponding demand for Chinese oil products is also expected to rebound further. In 2013, under the premise of no further expansion of the European debt crisis, European crude oil demand will continue to remain in the doldrums.

PTA

Unpredictable pattern of reunification The PTA remained weak overall in 2012, with the major increase in production capacity being the main reason. From the beginning of the year to June, the macroeconomic downturn contributed to the decline of PTA, while crude oil also remained weak during this period. In order to match the new production capacity to be released, the industry chain dropped to the lowest point of the year at 7000 yuan/ton in early June.

In the second half of the year, as a large number of new production capacities were launched one after another, PTA entered a wide swing market for five months. In August-September, due to the impact of typhoon transportation, there was a shortage of supplies in the PTA market. From October to December, the support factor has become the cost-moving force, while the downstream polyester production capacity has increased, and the actual demand for PTA still exists.

PX price strength remains unchanged PX is mainly used in the production of PTA, DMT, and pharmaceuticals in China. Relevant data show that the annual PX used to produce DMT is only tens of thousands of tons, and the PX consumed in the pharmaceutical field is only about 5% of the total PX consumption. Their impact on PX demand is minimal. However, PX consumed by PTA accounts for about 90% of the total PX consumption. PTA consumption growth is the direct cause of the increase in PX demand.

PX's production capacity is concentrated in 2014 and 2015. Currently, the significant increase in PTA and polyester production capacity has significantly increased the demand for PX. PX sources are in short supply and prices continue to be high. According to market analysts, China's PX capacity increase in 2013 was limited, with only 1.5 million tons of Tenglong, 600,000 tons of Pengzhou Petrochemical and 650,000 tons of Hainan Refining. It is expected that PX will remain tight in 2013 and prices will remain strong.

The degree of polyester boom is still going down At present, the biggest problems facing polyester are overcapacity and weak demand. Following the significant release of polyester production capacity in 2004 and 2005, the peak period of new production was ushered in from 2011 to 2013. In 2012, China had 6.1 million tons of polyester capacity put into operation. By the end of 2011, the polyester production capacity was 32.74 million tons. By the end of 2012, China's polyester production capacity was 38.84 million tons, and its capacity growth rate was 18.6%. In 2013, China will have 4 to 6 million tons of polyester capacity put into use. It is expected that polyester capacity will reach 43 million tons by the end of 2013.

Looking forward to 2013, the new polyester production capacity will still reach 5 million tons, and the production structure will still be dominated by polyester filaments, with certain growth in bottle-level slicing and polyester staple fiber. The polyester polyester market may enter the difficult period again for a longer period of time. The excess supply must be balanced by load adjustment. The price of polyester polyester products has been at a reasonably low level, which is basically the same as historical prices. The market is relatively weak in terms of long and short power. There are few hot spots and the enthusiasm is not high. The market is unlikely to rise or fall.

The pattern of hard-to-return PTA hardly returns 2011-2013 PTA ushered in a new round of capacity expansion. In 2011, China's 450,000-ton capacity plant was put into operation. The absolute capacity increase was about 29%. In 2012, China had 10.85 million tons of capacity to put into production. The capacity growth rate was as high as 54%, which is the highest level since 2006; there will be 8.1 million in 2013. Tons of capacity were put into production, and the capacity growth rate was 26%.

Methanol is expected to recover crude oil and natural gas—costs are affected by seasonal changes in the annual election year and supply and demand in countries. In 2012, crude oil prices basically showed a “N” trend. As an upstream chemical product, the impact of crude oil on methanol is more the accounting of mentality levels and chemical product costs.

The IEA said in the World Energy Outlook report that the United States has increased the production of oil and natural gas, combined with the use of energy efficiency technologies, so as to ensure that the country will achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2035 and no longer need to import from foreign countries. In the Middle East, due to the abundant natural gas resources, large-scale methanol plants have greater economies of scale.

The traditional demand is transformed into energy. 1. Coal-Methanol-Alkene Methanol from coal, and then from methanol to olefins are hot spots and highlights of methanol in recent years. It is a good attempt in the transformation of the coal chemical industry chain, and it is also the only way to consume excess methanol production capacity. With the continuous maturity and breakthrough of coal-to-olefin technology, the future market demand will have great potential.

2. Methanol Gasoline Methanol Fuel Promotion requires policy co-ordination. On the whole, despite the fact that domestic methanol fuel vehicles have been developed for many years and the area of ​​application and promotion has been continuously expanding, there are few scales and industrialization. Methanol production companies, methanol gasoline sales companies, and oil sales and raise companies have yet to form a connection. The three-way linkage operation mode of resources, downsizing and adding networks, identifying entry points, and integrating into the industrial chain has a lot to do in the overall promotion and commercialization of the methanol fuel distance in the market.

Outlook outlook The supply of the methanol industry will continue to grow in 2013, and the growth rate will also exceed 2012, the overall industry overcapacity pattern has not improved. Downstream traditional demand retreated to the second line. Energy demand has become a hot spot for the market. Dimethyl ether and methanol gasoline have become potential consumers of methanol. This will also require policy specification and support. With the acceleration of the MTO/MTP industry in recent years, in 2013, especially the MTO/MTP project without matching methanol plant will lead the growth of methanol demand.

In 2013, along with the reform of the methanol system itself, the methanol market will have excellent performance in volume and price, and the overall rhythm will still have seasonal characteristics. The methanol price is expected to be weak in the first quarter and gradually pick up in the second quarter. The price in the third quarter was under pressure and the demand for the off-season demand was dominated in the fourth quarter. The overall price range was maintained at 2,500-3,200 yuan/ton.

Glass will rise in the second quarter of next year The glass industry experienced a downturn in 2012, and the birth of the industry has brought sunshine to the industry, and companies tend to use more tools to avoid price fluctuations. The concentration of glass industry is relatively low, and there are differences in the quality of glass in different regions. With the convening of the regional winter conferences, the market was given a signal to release the price, and the northeastern region's center of gravity for deposits and withdrawals shifted downwards, putting the market price further under pressure.

The seasonal fluctuations in upstream costs are affected by the short-term tightening of real estate, and flat glass consumption in the soda ash consumer market has slowed down the increase in soda consumption. In terms of seasonal characteristics, the first quarter of each year is the slack season for consumption of soda ash. The demand in the second and third quarters is in a rising trend. The demand in the fourth quarter is relatively strong. Manufacturers generally have their own fixed supply of alkali plants, follow the market to carry out the corresponding raw material procurement, raw material prices of soda ash fluctuations are relatively large.

From the perspective of the cost structure of glass, soda ash and fuel have the largest amplitude. Fuel heavy oil mainly follows the trend of international crude oil, and prices will also exhibit seasonal characteristics. Due to the rigid supply of the glass industry, the demand for soda ash and fuel is relatively stable.

Downstream real estate is optimistic and the auto market is stable and enterprising under the influence of real estate control policies. Although the rapid development phase of the real estate industry has passed, it does not mean that the real estate industry will gradually decline. In the future, China's economy will maintain stable and rapid development. The improvement of urbanization will support the stable demand for real estate in the longer term. Although the auto market in 2012 did not continue its glory in 2011, production and sales are booming. It is expected that the automobile market will have good development with the support of policies in 2013. The auto market is expected to make steady progress, and the end market that accounts for 25% of the downstream demand for glass is worthy of attention.

The market outlook is optimistic that 2013 will be cautiously optimistic about the futures price of glass. The fundamentals will remain weak during the period from the end of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013. In the second quarter, glass prices are expected to show a wave of rising prices. In terms of investment strategy, based on the factory's natural short-selling mechanism and strong participation in speculative funds, the glass enamel will become the star category in 2013. Investors should maintain a phased operating philosophy and pay attention to the variety of PVC related to the real estate sector. Arbitrage operation of rebar (3869, -3.00, -0.08%).

PVC

The recovery of rebounding property is expected to drive the rebound of PVC from the driving force of the rebound in sales of commercial housing. On the one hand, market liquidity rebounds in the middle of the year; on the other hand, domestic property market regulation, while suppressing some speculative demand, has a rigid demand. Strength can not be ignored. Housing open trade unions will show a certain upward trend next year, and the 6% year-on-year growth rate is currently a more optimistic judgment. It is expected that the real estate warming will lead to the consumption of PVC downstream profiles and pipes, thereby improving the downstream demand for PVC.

The weak calcium carbide boosted the recovery of PVC earnings. The price trend of calcium carbide is closely related to the change in demand and production of calcium carbide. The main area of ​​calcium carbide is the production of PVC, and domestic calcium production capacity is still dominated by calcium carbide method, so through the analysis of calcium carbide production and the pace of changes in production of PVC, to grasp the specific significance of the changes in the price of calcium carbide reference.

Recalling the performance of calcium carbide since 2009, the price of calcium carbide increased sharply in the second half of 2010, and external market liquidity is an important factor. In addition, at the end of 2010, energy-saving and emission-reduction targets are guided by the production control of high-energy-consuming industries. The limited supply in 2011 combined with steady demand has ensured that calcium carbide prices are operating at a high level. At the beginning of 2012, the quantity of calcium carbide carried forward was small and the price rebounded. At the same time, the production of calcium carbide in the first half of the year was turned to surplus. The gradual accumulation of calcium carbide excess volume was released to a certain extent in the middle of the year, combined with the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. The output of PVC turned steadily, and the output of calcium carbide increased more rapidly.

Under the pressure of excess production, the dominance of calcium carbide prices has shifted to the downstream chlor-alkali enterprises. However, in the face of abundant shipments of calcium carbide, the downstream chlor-alkali enterprises lowered the purchase price of calcium carbide several times. This is the industrial background where the price of calcium carbide dropped rapidly at the end of the third quarter and early fourth quarter.

Outlook outlook Currently, the PVC industry faces two major difficulties, one is the large-scale production of domestic production capacity, of which the main calcium carbide method, and more concentrated in the Northwest and North China; the other is the industry average capacity utilization rate decline, a large number of production capacity idle . Under such an industry pattern, the PVC industry's production returns will remain in a weak position for a long time.

Looking forward to 2013, PVC** price will run between RMB 6200-7500/t, and we are more optimistic about investment opportunities in the first half of the year. On the one hand, the real estate situation in the first quarter and the second quarter is relatively optimistic, and the downstream demand for PVC will benefit. On the other hand, the price of raw material calcium carbide is expected to stabilize and pick up, and the impact of high calcium carbide carryover inventory has been fully reflected in the market price of calcium carbide. It is expected that the possibility of a sharp rise in new supply of calcium carbide will be relatively small if the inventory has not yet been fully digested. In this process, the price of calcium carbide is gradually brewing the opportunity to rebound. The future development of PVC** market will depend to a large extent on the increase in demand and the recovery of costs. In the first half of next year, PVC will present relatively good investment opportunities.

In 2013, along with the reform of the methanol system itself, the methanol market will have excellent performance in volume and price, and the overall rhythm will still have seasonal characteristics. The methanol price is expected to be weak in the first quarter and gradually pick up in the second quarter. The price in the third quarter was under pressure and the demand for the off-season demand was dominated in the fourth quarter. The overall price range was maintained at 2,500-3,200 yuan/ton.

Even the plastic oscillation is the main tone in the future. The release of domestic polyethylene production capacity has gradually accelerated the release of domestic polyethylene production capacity. In 2008, the domestic polyethylene production capacity was only 7.61 million tons. By 2010, the production capacity will have increased to 10.76 million tons, and the accumulated production capacity will increase by 3.15 million tons in two years. After relatively quiet 2011, polyethylene began to face a new round of capacity expansion in 2012. In the next three years, the domestic polyethylene production capacity will not be small. From 2013 to 2015, the planned polyethylene production capacity will be 2.1 million tons, 1.75 million tons and 900,000 tons respectively. By the end of 2015, domestic polyethylene production capacity is expected to reach 17.17 million tons, an increase of 38.24% from the end of this year.

Plastics (10675, 30.00, 0.28%) Steady increase in film production From the perspective of consumption structure, LLDPE is widely used in packaging film, agricultural film, wire and cable, pipe, and coated products, among which plastic film is the most important consumer field. Looking at the performance of plastic film during the year, the level of output continued to hit a new high since 2005. Looking at the average output of plastic film for three consecutive months, it also showed a significant rebound in the middle of the year.

Looking at the output structure of plastic films, the demand for agricultural films is relatively rigid, and the level of output remained stable throughout the year. However, due to the higher base, the growth rate of agricultural films this year has declined significantly, which means that the contribution to plastic film volume growth has weakened. At the same time, when the output level of agricultural films did not show significant growth, the level of packaging film production showed a stronger situation. The data show that the average output of packaging film for three consecutive months is close to 700,000 tons, an increase of 19.34% compared with the same period of last year, which is the largest source of plastic film production growth.

Outlook outlook Although domestic polyethylene production has shrunk, the active destocking of the industry chain and the increase in imports have well compensated for the negative impact of domestic production contraction and ensured that polyethylene supply remained stable.

With regard to the launch of domestic polyethylene production capacity, due to industrial production losses in 2012, Fushun Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical's plant production time was delayed. Sinopec Wuhan Petrochemical in the first half of 2013 and Sichuan Petrochemical in the second half of the year will also be put into production. The actual production rhythm will also depend on the level of profitability at the time of production. If production profits are not good, it may delay production.

In addition, the domestic polyethylene production does not have a cost advantage, and the dependence on imports will continue. This will also make the domestic polyethylene production and supply face a more fierce competitive environment, which may result in a relatively low profit margin for polyethylene production. Low level.

In terms of downstream demand, agricultural films did not see bright spots during the year, and there was no clear signal that agricultural film production will have a breakthrough next year. In this context, future growth in demand will still depend on the growth of the packaging film. According to the calculation, if the packaging film maintains a 15% increase, it will drive the plastic film to achieve a growth rate of 12.9%.

We believe that such an industrial background will set the pattern of large oscillations in future prices. The overall operating range is expected to be between RMB8,500 and RMB1,1,500/ton. The price performance will be relatively strong at the end of the first quarter and the third quarter, and the performance will be relative in the middle and fourth quarters. Weaknesses.

Rubber will be the former high after the low 2012 domestic rubber ** trend is mainly divided into the following three stages: the first stage is from January to May, the rubber price rose, high oscillation, the second phase is from mid-May to mid-August The rubber price fell steadily. The third stage was mid-August-the end of the year. Domestic and foreign insured prices and the US ** case expired, and the rubber price was supported.

Supply and demand analysis 1. Supply According to ANRPC data, in 2012, the total output of the member countries that accounted for 93% of the global natural rubber supply was expected to increase by 4.6% to 10.81 million tons. Thailand's output increased by 1.2% to 3.612 million tons, Indonesia increased by 7.7% to 3.261 million tons, Malaysia reduced production by 4.6% to 950,000 tons, and China increased by 9.4 to 795,000 tons. It should be noted that Vietnam’s production has increased substantially, which is 17.6% higher than 2011, and it has surpassed Malaysia as the third largest producer of rubber.

In terms of exports, total exports of member countries in 2012 are expected to increase by 6.0% to 8.254 million tons. Thailand is expected to grow by 2.9% to 3.038 million tons, Indonesia by 6.9% to 2.75 million tons, and Malaysia's exports remain stable, up by 1.0%. It should be pointed out that almost all rubber produced in Vietnam is used for export, and this year's exports have increased by 21%.

2. In terms of demand, the consumption level of rubber by ANRPCC member countries remained stable in 2012, which is expected to be 664.2% tons, an increase of 6.0% from last year. The growth rate of the member countries’ consumption this year is basically maintained at 4.5%-8%, of which China is still the largest consumer of natural rubber, accounting for 57.73% of the total, and the consumption growth in 2012 was 6.4% to 3.834 million tons. India’s natural rubber consumption It increased by 4.5% to 1.010 million tons.

On the import side, the total import growth of member countries in 2012 is expected to reach 15%. In 2011, the import growth rate was only 1.7%. The reason for the sharp increase in imports comes from China, India and Malaysia. Among them, China, as the most important rubber consumer country, imports nearly 74% of the total. Because the country cannot achieve self-sufficiency, most of them need to be imported. In 2012, China's import growth rate was estimated to be 15.1% to 3.279 million tons, Malaysia's import growth rate was 14.3% to 763,000 tons, and India's imports this year increased sharply by 40%, and the estimated annual import volume was 224,000 tons.

By the end of the outlook, by the end of the year, the HSBC PMI, which is the leading indicator, has returned to the top of the ebb and divide line. The difference from the official PMI has narrowed, which seems to indicate that the domestic economy has stabilized. At the same time, the rubber terminal auto industry began to enter the seasonal sales season, domestic collection and storage policies are in progress, the Sanko Rubber Council’s export reduction plan will continue until March 2013, and other favorable factors will support the price of rubber to a certain extent to the first quarter of next year. .

Judging from the fundamentals of rubber supply and demand, the downward trend in rubber prices is hard to change. The rubber growth period is generally about 6 years. According to ANRPC data, Indonesia expanded its planting area from 2006 to 2007, and rubber production in Indonesia has increased significantly in the past two years. From 2005 to 2008, Thailand significantly expanded its planting area, far exceeding Indonesia. Despite the reductions made in the following years, it is difficult to reduce the dramatic increase in production from 2011 to 2014. In 2008-2011, Vietnam also significantly increased rubber planting area. It can be seen that in 2013 the global rubber supply will continue to be lenient, and the target range of Hujiao's main contract price is expected to be 18,000-26,000 yuan/ton.

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