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In the days following the start of the Spring Festival, they took out mobile phones to read news, "the Central Bank raised interest rates," "enters the rate hike channel," "buying a house, and stocks must be taken care of." Such titles run across the screen.
Indeed, on the first working day after the Spring Festival on February 3rd, the Central Bank raised the open market reverse repurchase interest rate and the SLF interest rate in an all-round manner. Plus, on January 24 before the Spring Festival, the central bank raised the MLF interest rate. This series of Actions tightened the central bankâ€™s pocketbook, raised the cost of capital, and essentially played a role in raising interest rates.
Although the central bank used such a way to quietly enter the village, it has "pulled on interest rates," but it still elicited market-sensitive nerves.
Impact on the initial housing market transactions fell
The gold medal analysts and economic experts of the securities companies all spoke in their speeches. There were concerns about the bond market, concerns about the stock market, and concerns about commodities. Among them, most people mentioned the property market.
Jiang Chao, chief economist at Haitong Securities, even stated that real estate is approaching winter. At present, the 10-year national debt-issuing interest rate is already close to 4.1%, and the government-issued debt is a complete government credit. It does not require any venture capital for banks, but it requires 50% of the capital to be used for the issuance of mortgages, and thus capital is used up. The cost is extremely high, so according to the current 4.1% national opening rate, the reasonable mortgage interest rate should be around 5.5%, which is 100bp higher than the current level. This means that all discounted mortgages will be completely extinct, otherwise the banks would be better off buying debt.
Xu Hanfei, China Merchants Securities, said that the central bankâ€™s open market operation is a signal of an overall reversal of the central bank's monetary policy, which means that monetary easing has ended since 2014. The increase in the interest rate of the bank will eventually be transmitted to the mortgage rate, which is also an accurate blow to the housing market.
The performance of the property market in the chicken year also ushered in a cold. According to public information, during the Spring Festival holiday period (January 27 to February 2), the volume of new houses in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Suzhou, etc. has shrunk, mostly falling to single digits, the lowest in the same period in the last three years. value.
On February 2nd, in Shenzhen, only 1652 suites were sold in January, a decrease of 23.6% from the previous quarter, and prices continued to fall. The average transaction price was 54931 yuan/m2, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous period.
Even without considering the Spring Festival, as of the end of December last year, the average price of new commercial housing in Shenzhen was 12.57% lower than that in September last year. The ever-increasing myth of the first-line property market has been defeated by reality.
A property market, home security An?
The whole year of the monkey industry has been tossed by raw materials prices have been too crooked, just after the Spring Festival, they encountered the central bank in a matter of raising interest rates in disguise, which could not sit still. The reporter was informed that Guangzhou, Nanjing, Beijing and other places have seen a rise in brand home prices across the board.
A person in charge of the home furnishing company's marketing department said that the price increase was not entirely aimed at raising the interest rate of the central bank in a disguised form. Last year's increase in raw materials has laid the foundation for this price increase. Take wood for example. Before that, the price of each timber was about 2,900 yuan. Now it has risen to more than 3300 yuan! In addition, furniture, solid wood, hardware, sheet and other raw materials without exception, the price increase, which is even more than 70% increase in sponge!
With rising raw material costs and rising capital costs, product prices have become the most helpless choice for homeowners.
Guo Fanli, a specially invited researcher from the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters that according to the industryâ€™s situation, some home-owners have begun to raise prices for subordinate dealers. Guo Fanli predicts that the surge in prices in the entire industry will most likely occur by the middle of this year. More than 80% of enterprises in the home industry will actively or passively increase their prices.
Playing for more than 20 years in the home industry is not the same game this year
The property market has not been heated up. The cost of raw materials and capital has risen... In 2017, how should domestic companies play?
The home industry has developed for more than 20 years and has always been concerned about and relied on the volume of new homes. Now, with the increase in the proportion of newly renovated homes, more attention should be paid to the number of existing homes. The market is tilted.
Mr. Liu Chen, executive vice president and secretary-general of the Beijing Home Furnishings Association, calculated an account for us. Taking Beijing as an example, there are now housing areas of about 650 million square meters, removing new house increments, conservative calculations, and existing housing Within 10 years, there will be at least one re-decoration, according to the current Beijing minimum price of 1,000 yuan per square meter of decoration, plus the replacement of furniture and accessories, at least 1,500 yuan per square meter. As a result, the amount of consumption in the Beijing home industry will reach at least 100 billion (97.5 billion) per year, which indicates that there is still a huge market demand in the home industry today.
Moreover, the new housing market is not a dead water. The current Chinese economy, which is currently in transition, does not have the real right to suppress real estate, and the steady and positive adjustment is still the main tone.
From the perspective of sales figures, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to October 2016, the cumulative sales area of â€‹â€‹commercial housing increased by 26.8% year-on-year, of which the cumulative sales area of â€‹â€‹existing buildings increased by 28.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales area of â€‹â€‹forward housing increased by 26.2% year-on-year. The total sales area is 2.7 percentage points ahead of the æœŸæˆ¿. The existing homes ahead of the æœŸæˆ¿ for the home market, it will greatly reduce the real estate led home spending lag cycle, this year's home sales constitute a certain positive factor.
As for the impact of rising raw materials and capital costs, Guo Fanli believes that big brands and leading companies can also transfer costs to consumers by increasing product value added, brand premiums, and other methods. Low-end furniture brands are very difficult to deal with, in addition to the scale of compression, cooperation with giants, and transformation and upgrading, it can not find a better solution in the industry. Guo Fanli expects that the leading brands of big brands and large platforms will adopt private custom-made, high-end product R&D and other measures to strengthen the differentiated production of products, and the price rise is very fierce.
Home and home decoration industry has become a rigid demand in life. Consumer demand will not disappear due to the adjustment of the property market. With the improvement of people's quality requirements for home life, this part of consumption will not only inevitably continue to raise the file. upgrade.
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